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Bitcoin is currently facing resistance around the $60,000 mark, and despite the earlier predictions of some crypto experts, it seems increasingly the top cryptocurrency is unlikely to reach $100,000 by the end of 2024.

This stagnation also weighs on the broader cryptocurrency market, which has struggled to achieve significant growth in recent months. Several factors contribute to Bitcoin’s stalling, but the key reason is its increasing correlation with macroeconomic conditions. As Bitcoin matures, it is becoming more susceptible to the effects of global market activity and economic factors, which now play a greater role in shaping its trajectory than before.

Bitcoin returned in 2024

Bitcoin made a big comeback in 2024 after suffering a prolonged crypto winter due to FTX crash. It underwent a major technological event called “the half” and is increasingly gaining public recognition. After the approval of Fr spot Bitcoin ETFs from the SEC, the leading cryptocurrency peaked at $73,737 in March.

Adam Back, a prominent figure in the crypto world and one of the earliest cypherpunks who helped establish the conceptual foundation of Bitcoin, said Bitcoin’s rise to the $100,000 mark is long overdue and should happen soon.

However, it seems unlikely that the leading cryptocurrency will reach the $100,000 mark or even close to it in 2024. This is primarily due to its complexity, which makes it a challenging feat to achieve.

Crypto expert Noelle Acheson believes that Bitcoin can cross the $100,000 mark – it’s just not likely to happen this year. In an email, she told Quartz that if political uncertainty were to be resolved favorably — for example, if former President Donald Trump wins in November or if Vice President Kamala Harris expresses support for crypto development — it is certainly possible, especially given that the likelihood of to a cycle of falling interest rates.

“I’m not saying that will happen [this year]just that this is not an outrageous prediction.”

Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at crypto exchange Bitfinex LEOechoed Acheson’s statement by saying that, based on historical patterns and expectations set by events like the halving, Bitcoin could hit $100,000.

“However, these forecasts often do not account for unexpected macroeconomic changes, market maturity and changes in investor behavior,” he said in an email.

Blaming the Halving on Bitcoin’s Resistance?

After Bitcoin Halving in April, which reduced the mining reward from 6.25 to 3.125 Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency did not experience the significant price increase seen in the previous halvings.

Acheson noted that halving events often lead to a temporary drop in Bitcoin’s price in the coming months, so the current sluggishness is not unexpected. However, this year offers unique circumstances.

“This year is weaker than other cycles, though most likely due to political factors and the AI ​​craze,” she added.

Kooner attributed the complexity of the current market to various factors, including institutional investment patterns, regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions that affect Bitcoin price performance.

“There is always a ‘buffer period’ after the halving that normally occurs,” he added.

“While there was some volatility immediately after the halving, this period may represent a typical post-halving build-up phase, which has been seen in previous cycles.”

What is the price prediction for Bitcoin in 2024?

Acheson refrained from making specific price predictions for Bitcoin in 2024 but noted an intriguing historical pattern. She noted that between the end of August and December 2020, after the first halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by 270%. Within the same time frame, for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of this year, it would only need to rise by 70%, she said.

Kooner sees the $63,000 to $65,000 range as critical to Bitcoin’s market dynamics. He sees Bitcoin’s ability to hold its price above or below this level as a key indicator of market strength, as it reflects the cost basis of short-term holders and ETF buyers.

“We also expect the usual deleveraging in financials and a sell-off news event to drive prices lower after the actual rate cut in September.” However, as long as stocks hold up well in the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect the consolidation period to be over by then,” he added.